Friday, 11 March 2011

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Copper reverses gains after earthquake hits Japan

  • Friday, 11 March 2011
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  • * Magnitude 8.9 earthquake shook Japan




     * LME copper heading for worst week since June 2010




     * Coming Up: U.S. retail sales; 1330 GMT

    (Recasts; updates prices)




     By Rujun Shen	




     SINGAPORE, March 11 (Reuters) - London copper prices
    reversed early gains on Friday, after a strong earthquake jolted
    Japan and sent shockwave across global financial markets.




      A massive 8.8 magnitude quake hit the northeast coast of
    Japan on Friday causing a tsunami to hit coastal areas and
    shaking buildings in the capital Tokyo. The Japanese government
    warned of strong aftershocks and more
    damages.




     "It feeds into the already risk-negative week, with
    political unrest in the Middle East and the slightly weak China
    import data for base metals. All of those factors have fed into
    sentiment towards commodities this week," said Daniel Major, an
    analyst at RBS.




     Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange 
    reversed early gains to $9,184.75 tonne by 0700 GMT, down $6
    from the previous close. It was headed for a seven percent
    weekly loss, its biggest since last June.




     Shanghai's third-month copper futures contract also
    reversed course to end down 10 yuan, or 0.01 percent at 69,220
    yuan, headed for its worst week since May 2009.




     Industrial metals were already under pressure on worries
    about high oil prices, sparked by unrest in the Middle East,
    that may hurt the global economy.




     "The other half of the reason is people are pretty concerned
    about Chinese consumption patterns based on the trade data
    yesterday and some of the issues people have been talking about
    in the past few months in term of what the macro policy is going
    to be," said a Sydney-based trader,




     "This really serves as a dual threat that is pressuring the
    markets. But at the end of the day, I also believe that markets
    are looking for a chance to sell off."




     China's inflation levelled off in February while industrial
    output accelerated, tentative signs that the government is
    succeeding in taming price pressures without unduly harming
    growth in the world's second-largest economy.




     Further monetary tightening to tamp inflation in China
    however remains a possibility.




     Output of most industrial metals showed strong growth in the
    first two months of the year. Refined copper output gained
    nearly 8 percent to 795,000 tonnes, while copper products,
    semi-finished products and alloy output jumped 15.2 percent on
    the year.




     "The output data is quite strong, although there's concern
    that output growth could have outpaced demand growth, which
    might cause some problems in the coming months," said Judy Zhu,
    an analyst at Standard Chartered in Shanghai.




     Zhu said the trade and output data in March will be key to
    understanding the situation on the ground, since the Lunar New
    Year holiday in February probably distorted the picture in the
    first two months of the year.




     LME copper is seen to have strong support around $9,200. It
    may rebound to $9,600 next week, said Reuters market analyst
    Wang Tao.




     "I think $9,000 is the bottom. This is the point when the
    Chinese will aggressively enter the market," said the
    Sydney-based trader.




     "They seem fairly well stocked in the near term, and there
    is no reason to jump in right away."




     Investors were watching the escalating tension in the Middle
    East and its impact on the oil market, and the euro zone debt
    crisis has resurfaced with Moody's downgrading both Spain and
    Greece this week.




     The euro zone leaders plan to meet later in the day to
    discuss how to the solve the region's debt crisis, but the
    meeting is unlikely to produce a breakthrough.




        	
    Base metals prices at 0700 GMT
    Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
    LME Cu 9184.75 -6.25 -0.07 -4.33
    SHFE CU FUT MAY1 69220 -10 -0.01 -3.66
    LME Alum 2580.75 -4.25 -0.16 4.48
    SHFE AL FUT MAY1 16760 -25 -0.15 -0.48
    HG COPPER MAY1 416.95 -0.25 -0.67 -6.08
    LME Zinc 2283.00 -3.00 -0.13 -6.97
    SHFE ZN FUT MAY1 17745 10 +0.06 -8.88
    LME Nickel 25980.00 -70.00 -0.27 4.97
    LME Lead 2431.25 1.25 +0.05 -4.66
    LME Tin 29700.00 400.00 +1.37 10.41
    LME/Shanghai arb^ 1439
    Dollar/yuan 6.5753 \ 6.5762




    Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months




    ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE  third month

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