Saturday, 16 April 2011

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Copper extends losing streak on China inflation

  • Saturday, 16 April 2011
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  • * China consumer price inflation 5.4 pct in year to March

    * U.S. core inflation rises slightly, sentiment mends

    * Coming up: U.S. housing data on Tuesday

    (Recasts, adds New York dateline/byline, updates with New York closing copper price, adds details and analyst comments)

    By Chris Kelly and Rebekah Curtis

    NEW YORK/LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - Copper fell for a fifth straight day on Friday, posting its biggest weekly loss since mid-March, as mounting inflationary pressure in China cast a shadow over the near-term demand outlook.

    Copper again shunned rallies in the precious metals complex, with gold and silver surging to record and 31-year highs, respectively, as investors bought both metals as a hedge against global inflation worries and rising oil prices.

    [GOL/]

    London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for three-months delivery CMCU3 eased $5 to close at $9,405 a tonne.

    COMEX May copper HGK1 shed 2.65 cents to settle at $4.2575 per lb.

    Chinese consumer price inflation sped to 5.4 percent in the year to March, the fastest since July 2008 and topping market forecasts of 5.2 percent. Gross domestic product in China, the world's top copper buyer, eased a touch.

    [ID:nLDE73E0A2]

    "The market is gradually getting a little bit more worried about what Chinese growth is going to look like over the medium term because of the ongoing tightening," Jesper Dannesboe, senior commodity strategist at Societe Generale, said.

    "Growth is going to slow down quite significantly. It's going to be very bumpy."

    China accounts for about 40 percent of copper demand.

    Chinese production data added to the negative tone, showing the country's production of refined copper and primary aluminum rose 23.7 percent and 7.4 percent from a year earlier in March, hitting monthly records for both metals on expanded capacity and sufficient supply of raw materials. [ID:nL3E7FF0AX]

    "Some cracks are starting to appear in terms of their import needs, and (higher) commodity prices are causing some concerns over the sustainability of their high level of growth," said Steve Platt, futures analyst with Archer Financial Services in Chicago.

    Looking at supply, the International Copper Study Group trimmed its 2011 global copper market deficit forecast to 377,000 tonnes, about 20,000 tonnes narrower than its previous forecast in October 2010. [ID:nN15530994]

    Copper inventories at LME warehouses fell 375 tonnes to 450,425 tonnes, a small respite in an overall uptrend that has seen stocks of the metal climb by a fifth so far this year. MCU-STOCKS DATA SLEW

    Rising food and gasoline costs lifted U.S. consumer prices overall in March, but underlying inflation pressures were contained and consumer confidence rose in April. [ID:nN15209781]

    But earlier, data showed inflation in the euro zone climbed higher than expected in March to 2.7 percent year-on-year, adding to the case for further rises in interest rates. [ID:nLDE73E11A]

    "We might not see a decent pick-up in demand until the second half of the year, which leaves prices vulnerable in Q2," Standard Bank analyst Leon Westgate said in a note.

    "That said, ample liquidity, dollar weakness, inflation concerns, and bullish perceptions of the longer-term fundamentals, are likely to keep investment money flowing, likely resulting in a particularly volatile couple of months to come."

    Also knocking sentiment, Moody's cut Ireland's sovereign rating by two notches to the verge of junk status and kept its outlook on negative, pushing the euro lower, which deterred European investors from metals. [.EU] [FRX/]

    Metal Prices at 1911 GMT

    COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T

     Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct
    COMEX Cu 425.40 -3.00 -0.70 444.70 -4.34
    LME Alum 2694.00 50.00 +1.89 2470.00 9.07
    LME Cu 9404.00 -6.00 -0.06 9600.00 -2.04
    LME Lead 2650.00 37.00 +1.42 2550.00 3.92
    LME Nickel 26150.00 350.00 +1.36 24750.00 5.66
    LME Tin 33100.00 875.00 +2.72 26900.00 23.05
    LME Zinc 2397.00 -3.00 -0.13 2454.00 -2.32
    SHFE Alu 16710.00 -15.00 -0.09 16840.00 -0.77
    SHFE Cu* 70830.00 -270.00 -0.38 71850.00 -1.42
    SHFE Zin 18270.00 -75.00 -0.41 19475.00 -6.19
    ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
    * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
    SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
    (Additional reporting by Sue Thomas in London; editing by Dale Hudson)


    (Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/15/markets-metals-idUSLDE73E0MY20110415)

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