Monday, 25 April 2011

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ShFE Copper slide, worries over US, UK GDP data weigh

  • Monday, 25 April 2011
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  • * ShFE and Comex copper slide

    * LME copper expected to open low

    * Aluminium supported by strong Brent Crude

    * Coming up: Britain, US to release GDP data this week

    * News conference after U.S. Fed's meetings on Wednesday,

    (Updates prices, adds details and quotes)

    By Carrie Ho

    SINGAPORE, April 25 (Reuters) - Shanghai copper closed lower on Monday, tracking losses in U.S. futures, which dropped as much as 1.3 percent, ahead of possibly weak economic data from the United States and Britain this week.

    The most active Shanghai copper contract SCFcv1, July, fell 1 percent to 70,740 yuan by 0702 GMT. The May copper contract on COMEX in New York HGcv1 dropped 1.2 percent to 434.80 cents/lb ($9,586.04 a tonne). Earlier prices dipped by 1.3 percent to 434.20 cents.

    "The upcoming release of U.S. and British GDP data, which are expected to be weak, will likely put more pressure on copper prices," Jinhui Futures deputy general manager Ling Yuhui said.

    Britain will release its GDP data on Wednesday, while the United States will do so on Thursday. [ID:nN21301019]

    The London Metal Exchange was shut for the Easter Monday holiday.

    "I expect London copper to open weaker tomorrow since Comex copper fell today. The whole atmosphere in the copper market is just very bearish with China's credit tightening and high stockpiles, and today's strengthening of the dollar," Ling added.

    The dollar won a reprieve on Monday after last week's steep slide but traders said it could head for a test of its all-time low against a basket of currencies if the U.S. Federal Reserve takes a cautious stance towards tightening later in the week.

    Tight credit conditions in China also played a part in the weak performances of base metals, Great Wall Futures analyst Li Rong said.

    Beijing adopted a more hawkish monetary policy in October, since when it has moved to reduce liquidity and raise interest rates 11 times in order to cool inflation.

    Chinese inflation numbers are expected to rise no more than 5 percent in the second half of 2011, said Xu Lianzhong, a director at the National Development and Reform Commission.

    [ID:nTOE73N001]

    The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a news conference on Thursday after its meeting on interest rates closes.

    [ID:nN21301019]

    "The only policy announcement I'm looking out for is a rise in U.S. interest rates. I doubt we will see that any time soon, so commodities will not be affected in the near term," a Shanghai-based trader said.

    Copper stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.8 percent last week to 139,076 tonnes, their lowest since mid-February. CU-STX-SGH

    However, concerns lingered over unreported stocks in the eastern Chinese city, seen at more than half a million tonnes.

    [ID:nL3E7FB1K9]

    A strike by truck drivers in Shanghai had little impact on copper despite delaying customs clearance for some shipments.[ID:nL3E7FL1N1]

    Base metals prices at 0702 GMT

      	
    Base metals prices at 0702 GMT
    Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
    SHFE CU FUT JUL1 70740 -670 -0.94 -1.54
    SHFE AL FUT JUL1 16810 -05 -0.03 -0.18
    HG COPPER MAY1 434.80 6.15 -1.18 -2.06
    SHFE ZN FUT JUN1 17245 -335 -1.91 -11.45
    SHFE PB FUT 17760 -215 -1.20 -3.22




    Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months Shanghai lead launched on March 24



    (Reporting by Carrie Ho; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Sugita Katyal)

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