Wednesday, 22 June 2011
Copper retreats as dollar lifted by lack of stimulus hint
* Copper off session lows, tight supplies support
* Copper may revisit record high in 3 months-technicals
* Coming Up: U.S. weekly jobless claims; 1230 GMT
By Manolo Serapio Jr
SINGAPORE, June 23 (Reuters) - Copper drifted lower on Thursday as the dollar strengthened after the U.S. Federal Reserve gave no hint of further monetary support even as it acknowledged the world's top economy was recovering more slowly than it had expected.
The Fed cut its U.S. growth estimate for this year to 2.7-2.9 percent from a previous forecast of 3.1-3.3 percent, with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke saying parts of the slowdown may be "longer lasting".
The absence of any sign that the Fed would provide more stimulus when its current $600-billion bond-buying program expires at the end of June helped boost the dollar against the euro and a basket of currencies .
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped $30 to $8,990 a tonne by 0351 GMT, extending losses from the previous session but well off the day's low of $8,940.
Shanghai's most-active September copper eased 0.4 percent to 67,200 yuan a tonne, also off the session low of 66,640.
But the outlook for copper and other base metals remains healthy on tight global supplies and firm demand from top consumer China, analysts said.
"U.S. interest rates are incredibly low and monetary policy is still stimulatory and with China likely to keep on growing strongly, albeit slightly weaker than what it was, I still think it's a reasonably good outlook for copper and other metals," said Citigroup analyst David Thurtell.
China's copper imports are likely to rise in the second half of 2011 after a fall in past months as the country uses up its domestic stocks, Aurubis , Europe's biggest copper producer, said.
London copper has lost around 12 percent since hitting a record high of $10,190 in mid-February, but analysts say prices are likely to remain supported by expectations of a global deficit this year.
"Given more and more signs of worker unrest at some of the large Chile mines, if we get a prolonged strike at some or all of those mines, the market will quickly go into deficit," said Citigroup's Thurtell, who estimates a global copper shortage of about 300,000 tonnes this year.
Union leaders briefly blocked roads to Codelco's giant Chuquicamata mine in Chile on Wednesday in a protest that did not hit output but highlights growing labor risks for the world's top copper producer.
Technical charts point to copper revisiting its record high of $10,190 a tonne over the next three months, with a crucial support level seen at $8,504.50, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Base metals prices at 0351 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 YTD pct chg
LME Cu 8990.00 -30.00 -0.33 9600.00 -6.35
SHFE Cu* 67200.00 -240.00 -0.36 71850.00 -6.47
LME Alum 2537.00 -12.00 -0.47 2470.00 2.71
SHFE Alum* 17035.00 35.00 +0.21 16840.00 1.16
COMEX Cu** 405.95 -3.05 -0.75 443.95 -8.56
LME Zinc 2235.00 -18.50 -0.82 2454.00 -8.92
SHFE Zinc 17340.00 115.00 +0.67 19475.00 -10.96
LME Nickel 22045.00 -105.00 -0.47 24750.00 -10.93
LME Lead 2508.00 -36.00 -1.42 2550.00 -1.65
LME Tin 25100.00 -245.00 -0.97 26900.00 -6.69
LME/Shanghai arb^ 832
Dollar/yuan 6.4680 \ 6.4685
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month
(Reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr.;Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
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