Thursday, 30 June 2011

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METALS-Copper gains on relief over Greece, end of H1

  • Thursday, 30 June 2011
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  • * Copper hits two-month high

    * Copper stocks fall for sixth session

    (Updates with closing prices)

    By Melanie Burton

    LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Copper hit its highest in two months on Thursday, supported by investors' greater appetite for risky assets after the safe passage of Greece's austerity plan, as well as positioning ahead of the end of the first half. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $9,430 -- its highest since end-April -- compared with a close of $9,320 a tonne on Wednesday. Copper's gains came against a backdrop of optimism in other markets that Greece is on its way to averting a default, cutting the risk sovereign debt crisis could spread across the euro zone and derail the global economic recovery.

    The Greek parliament approved detailed austerity and privatisation bills on Thursday in a crucial vote to secure emergency funds and avert imminent bankruptcy, but longer-term dangers still lurk.

    "There's a relief rally - it suggests there was some uncertainty prior to the vote that maybe the implementation part would cause problems and now that it didn't you've seen this relief rally come through," Danske Bank analyst Christin Tuxen said.

    The euro rose against the dollar on Thursday and headed for a second quarterly gain.

    The LME options market was also supportive of higher copper prices, noted Citi, with a large pool of open interest at the $9,500 strike. Prices tend to gravitate towards large areas of open interest. Options for the July contract expire next week. <0#MCUN1+>

    Copper's chart picture has also improved, with the metal breaking above its 100-day moving average around $9,362, a key buy signal watched by funds.

    "Today is the last day of the month, the quarter, the half year," analyst

    Robin Bhar of Credit Agricole said. "... You could argue that it has been a very difficult quarter for a lot of funds. They may have lost money and it may be a last ditch effort to flatter their balance sheets."

    COPPER STOCKS Earlier a report showed business activity in the U.S. Midwest grew more than expected this month, helped by a jump new orders.

    But other data showed the number of Americans filing claims for employment benefits barely fell last week, suggesting the labor market was struggling to regain momentum.

    A falling trend in LME copper stocks probably does not reflect an increase in consumer appetite, given the onset of the summer slowdown in the northern hemisphere, and may represent instead a stock shuffle among LME warehouses, Bhar added.

    "It's not fundamental, it's these warehouse wars," he said.

    Metals brokers and producers are shifting metal out of Goldman Sachs' Metro warehouses in a bid to break the unit's hold on stock movements, senior trading sources told Reuters last week.

    LME copper stocks fell for a sixth session, by 1,775 tonnes net, the latest data showed, and have now dropped around 12,000 tonnes from 13-month highs tipped earlier this month.

    Copper demand is expected to undergo a soft patch over the next few months, but most analysts expect consumption to ramp up towards the end of the third quarter.

    Longer term, prospects remain set for higher prices against a backdrop of growing infrastructure and consumer goods demand not just from top consumer China, but also other fast-growing economies like Brazil, said Barclays Capital.

    "Consumption indications remain very supportive so far in 2011...in the initial stage of a strong infrastructure investment cycle," it said in a note. Barcap sees domestic copper and aluminium demand rising 92 percent and 53 percent, respectively, over the next 10 years. Boosted by copper, other metals also advanced, with lead ending at $2,684 a tonne -- a new high since mid-April -- compared with a $2,634 close.

    Zinc , which also hit its highest since mid-April, ended at $2,365 from $2,317 a tonne.

    Nickel , which hit a one-month-high, closed at $23,425 a tonne, up from $23,075. Australia's Minara Resources was forced to cut output at its Murrin Murrin nickel ore processing plant due to an equipment failure but analysts said the incident's impact on global supply and prices would be minor.

    Aluminium ended flat at $2,532 a tonne and tin closed at $26,050 from $25,845 a tonne.

     Metal Prices at 1611 GMT
    Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
    Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct
    move
    COMEX Cu 427.30 5.55 +1.32 444.70 -3.91
    LME Alum 2531.00 11.00 +0.44 2470.00 2.47
    LME Cu 9429.00 109.00 +1.17 9600.00 -1.78
    LME Lead 2683.00 49.00 +1.86 2550.00 5.22
    LME Nickel 23425.00 350.00 +1.52 24750.00 -5.35
    LME Tin 26050.00 205.00 +0.79 26900.00 -3.16
    LME Zinc 2364.50 47.50 +2.05 2454.00 -3.65
    SHFE Alu 17180.00 80.00 +0.47 16840.00 2.02
    SHFE Cu* 69860.00 1780.00 +2.61 71850.00 -2.77
    SHFE Zin 17760.00 285.00 +1.63 19475.00 -8.81
    ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
    * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
    SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07




     	

    (Reporting by Melanie Burton; editing by William Hardy)
    Source: http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL6E7HU0PN20110630

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