Friday, 1 July 2011
Copper May Climb Next Week After Rising Above Moving Average, Survey Shows
Copper may rise after climbing above a moving average amid reduced concern Greece may default on its debt, a survey showed.
Six of 11 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg, or 55 percent, said prices will gain next week. Three predicted a drop and two forecast little change. Copper for three-month delivery was up 3.6 percent for this week at $9,375 a metric ton by 4:45 p.m. yesterday on the London Metal Exchange.
The metal yesterday advanced above its 100-day moving average at $9,362 a ton for the first time since April. Copper has traded near or above its 200-day moving average since early May. Moving averages can serve as directional signals for a commodity, security or index to traders and investors who study technical charts.
“Technical levels getting breached” were “forcing shorts to cover,” said Randy North, a trader atRBC Capital Markets in New York. Short-covering refers to purchases that reverse bets on declining prices.
The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the copper price. The survey data shown are as of June 24.
The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 69 of the past 143 weeks, or 48 percent of the time.
This week’s survey results: Bullish: 6 Bearish: 3 Hold: 2
Copper sector set to shine on growing demand
The Street reported that copper prices may have stalled but a look at supply versus demand makes the industrial metal increasingly attractive.
Even though copper is down from its all time high of USD 4.62 per pound, analyst reports continue to project that robust demand from China will help boost prices toward the end of 2011.
Analysts said that on the supply side copper is in the midst of a worldwide production slump. If you believe in construction and automobile growth in China and Japan, or even a housing rebound in the US then you aren't far off from believing in the strength of the copper market. The base metal is used in wiring, roofing and industrial machinery and often acts as a bellwether for economic health.
Mr George Gero metals strategist at RBC Capital said that on average, one automobile uses about 40 pounds of copper and one house averages about 400 pounds. One automobile uses about 40 pounds of copper and one house averages about 400 pounds.
Mr Eric Zuccarelli independent trader said that since copper trends are tied to the fundamentals, the metal tends to be less volatile on a daily basis. Copper is holding up well even in the midst of a perceived economic slowdown.
Source: from the Street
Thursday, 30 June 2011
METALS-Copper gains on relief over Greece, end of H1
* Copper hits two-month high
* Copper stocks fall for sixth session
(Updates with closing prices)
By Melanie Burton
LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Copper hit its highest in two months on Thursday, supported by investors' greater appetite for risky assets after the safe passage of Greece's austerity plan, as well as positioning ahead of the end of the first half. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $9,430 -- its highest since end-April -- compared with a close of $9,320 a tonne on Wednesday. Copper's gains came against a backdrop of optimism in other markets that Greece is on its way to averting a default, cutting the risk sovereign debt crisis could spread across the euro zone and derail the global economic recovery.
The Greek parliament approved detailed austerity and privatisation bills on Thursday in a crucial vote to secure emergency funds and avert imminent bankruptcy, but longer-term dangers still lurk.
"There's a relief rally - it suggests there was some uncertainty prior to the vote that maybe the implementation part would cause problems and now that it didn't you've seen this relief rally come through," Danske Bank analyst Christin Tuxen said.
The euro rose against the dollar on Thursday and headed for a second quarterly gain.
The LME options market was also supportive of higher copper prices, noted Citi, with a large pool of open interest at the $9,500 strike. Prices tend to gravitate towards large areas of open interest. Options for the July contract expire next week. <0#MCUN1+>
Copper's chart picture has also improved, with the metal breaking above its 100-day moving average around $9,362, a key buy signal watched by funds.
"Today is the last day of the month, the quarter, the half year," analyst
Robin Bhar of Credit Agricole said. "... You could argue that it has been a very difficult quarter for a lot of funds. They may have lost money and it may be a last ditch effort to flatter their balance sheets."
COPPER STOCKS Earlier a report showed business activity in the U.S. Midwest grew more than expected this month, helped by a jump new orders.
But other data showed the number of Americans filing claims for employment benefits barely fell last week, suggesting the labor market was struggling to regain momentum.
A falling trend in LME copper stocks probably does not reflect an increase in consumer appetite, given the onset of the summer slowdown in the northern hemisphere, and may represent instead a stock shuffle among LME warehouses, Bhar added.
"It's not fundamental, it's these warehouse wars," he said.
Metals brokers and producers are shifting metal out of Goldman Sachs' Metro warehouses in a bid to break the unit's hold on stock movements, senior trading sources told Reuters last week.
LME copper stocks fell for a sixth session, by 1,775 tonnes net, the latest data showed, and have now dropped around 12,000 tonnes from 13-month highs tipped earlier this month.
Copper demand is expected to undergo a soft patch over the next few months, but most analysts expect consumption to ramp up towards the end of the third quarter.
Longer term, prospects remain set for higher prices against a backdrop of growing infrastructure and consumer goods demand not just from top consumer China, but also other fast-growing economies like Brazil, said Barclays Capital.
"Consumption indications remain very supportive so far in 2011...in the initial stage of a strong infrastructure investment cycle," it said in a note. Barcap sees domestic copper and aluminium demand rising 92 percent and 53 percent, respectively, over the next 10 years. Boosted by copper, other metals also advanced, with lead ending at $2,684 a tonne -- a new high since mid-April -- compared with a $2,634 close.
Zinc , which also hit its highest since mid-April, ended at $2,365 from $2,317 a tonne.
Nickel , which hit a one-month-high, closed at $23,425 a tonne, up from $23,075. Australia's Minara Resources was forced to cut output at its Murrin Murrin nickel ore processing plant due to an equipment failure but analysts said the incident's impact on global supply and prices would be minor.
Aluminium ended flat at $2,532 a tonne and tin closed at $26,050 from $25,845 a tonne.
Metal Prices at 1611 GMT
Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 427.30 5.55 +1.32 444.70 -3.91
LME Alum 2531.00 11.00 +0.44 2470.00 2.47
LME Cu 9429.00 109.00 +1.17 9600.00 -1.78
LME Lead 2683.00 49.00 +1.86 2550.00 5.22
LME Nickel 23425.00 350.00 +1.52 24750.00 -5.35
LME Tin 26050.00 205.00 +0.79 26900.00 -3.16
LME Zinc 2364.50 47.50 +2.05 2454.00 -3.65
SHFE Alu 17180.00 80.00 +0.47 16840.00 2.02
SHFE Cu* 69860.00 1780.00 +2.61 71850.00 -2.77
SHFE Zin 17760.00 285.00 +1.63 19475.00 -8.81
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Reporting by Melanie Burton; editing by William Hardy)
Source: http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL6E7HU0PN20110630
Wednesday, 22 June 2011
Copper retreats as dollar lifted by lack of stimulus hint
* Copper off session lows, tight supplies support
* Copper may revisit record high in 3 months-technicals
* Coming Up: U.S. weekly jobless claims; 1230 GMT
By Manolo Serapio Jr
SINGAPORE, June 23 (Reuters) - Copper drifted lower on Thursday as the dollar strengthened after the U.S. Federal Reserve gave no hint of further monetary support even as it acknowledged the world's top economy was recovering more slowly than it had expected.
The Fed cut its U.S. growth estimate for this year to 2.7-2.9 percent from a previous forecast of 3.1-3.3 percent, with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke saying parts of the slowdown may be "longer lasting".
The absence of any sign that the Fed would provide more stimulus when its current $600-billion bond-buying program expires at the end of June helped boost the dollar against the euro and a basket of currencies .
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped $30 to $8,990 a tonne by 0351 GMT, extending losses from the previous session but well off the day's low of $8,940.
Shanghai's most-active September copper eased 0.4 percent to 67,200 yuan a tonne, also off the session low of 66,640.
But the outlook for copper and other base metals remains healthy on tight global supplies and firm demand from top consumer China, analysts said.
"U.S. interest rates are incredibly low and monetary policy is still stimulatory and with China likely to keep on growing strongly, albeit slightly weaker than what it was, I still think it's a reasonably good outlook for copper and other metals," said Citigroup analyst David Thurtell.
China's copper imports are likely to rise in the second half of 2011 after a fall in past months as the country uses up its domestic stocks, Aurubis , Europe's biggest copper producer, said.
London copper has lost around 12 percent since hitting a record high of $10,190 in mid-February, but analysts say prices are likely to remain supported by expectations of a global deficit this year.
"Given more and more signs of worker unrest at some of the large Chile mines, if we get a prolonged strike at some or all of those mines, the market will quickly go into deficit," said Citigroup's Thurtell, who estimates a global copper shortage of about 300,000 tonnes this year.
Union leaders briefly blocked roads to Codelco's giant Chuquicamata mine in Chile on Wednesday in a protest that did not hit output but highlights growing labor risks for the world's top copper producer.
Technical charts point to copper revisiting its record high of $10,190 a tonne over the next three months, with a crucial support level seen at $8,504.50, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
Base metals prices at 0351 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 YTD pct chg
LME Cu 8990.00 -30.00 -0.33 9600.00 -6.35
SHFE Cu* 67200.00 -240.00 -0.36 71850.00 -6.47
LME Alum 2537.00 -12.00 -0.47 2470.00 2.71
SHFE Alum* 17035.00 35.00 +0.21 16840.00 1.16
COMEX Cu** 405.95 -3.05 -0.75 443.95 -8.56
LME Zinc 2235.00 -18.50 -0.82 2454.00 -8.92
SHFE Zinc 17340.00 115.00 +0.67 19475.00 -10.96
LME Nickel 22045.00 -105.00 -0.47 24750.00 -10.93
LME Lead 2508.00 -36.00 -1.42 2550.00 -1.65
LME Tin 25100.00 -245.00 -0.97 26900.00 -6.69
LME/Shanghai arb^ 832
Dollar/yuan 6.4680 \ 6.4685
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month
(Reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr.;Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
Monday, 13 June 2011
Copper prices see pressure toward technical support
LONDON (SHARECAST) - Copper prices are falling again today, with prices apparently trading close to support levels, from a technical analysis viewpoint.
Base metals prices shaved some gains towards the end of last week on the back of broader market weakness and due to a renewed rally in USD. Also pressuring prices, Chinese import statistics on Friday showed a 3% month on month drop in imports for the month of May, Morgan Stanley is pointing out this afternoon.
The bank’s analysts, however, expect trade data for June to show a turnaround, “as signs of Chinese re-stocking continue to build.”
Also of interest, Morgan Stanley calls attention to a Chinese “cash for clunker" type scheme which offered some support in the palladium complex, last Friday, whereas most precious metals saw weakness that day, likely due to profit taking and concerns over strength from the investment community in an environment of diminishing gains.
The unofficial cash price for copper is now falling 1.2%, to $8,895 per tonne in LME trading, according to Digital Look data.
Source: http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=4290663
Copper declines in futures trade on global cues
Copper prices declined by 0.14% to Rs 406.55 per kg in futures trade today as speculators reduced their positions, triggered by a weakening global trend.
Sluggish demand at the domestic spot market also put some pressure on the copper prices at futures trade.
At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August fell by 55 paise, or 0.14%, to Rs 406.55 per kg, with a business turnover of 1,660 lots.
Similarly, the metal for delivery in June traded lower by 50 paise, or 0.12%, to Rs 401.10 per kg in 22,036 lots.
Market analysts said besides a weakening trend at the London Metal Exchange, a subdued trend at the domestic spot markets put pressure on the copper futures prices.
Meanwhile, copper for three-month delivery fell by 0.5% to $8,891 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange.
Saturday, 4 June 2011
Copper trades down on global cues
Copper yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.48% down at 406.65, Copper fell to a one-week low on concern that the global economic recovery may be faltering as manufacturing slows from China to the U.S., the world’s largest metals buyers.
Manufacturing in the U.S. grew at the slowest pace in more than a year last month, and more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week. China said industrial production was the weakest since August.
Copper prices have dropped 12 percent from a record in February. Copper may fall further on speculation demand will slow as global economic growth falters.
China’s manufacturing growth fell, with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing saying on June 1 that its purchasing managers’ index dropped to 52 in May from 52.9 in April.
In yesterday's trading session copper has touched the low of 401.8 after opening at 408, and finally settled at 406.65.
For today's session market is looking to take support at 402.4, a break below could see a test of 398.1 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 410.4, a move above could see prices testing 414.2.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range is 398.1-414.2.
Copper fell on concern that global economic recovery may be faltering as manufacturing slows
Copper is taking resistance at 410.40 and support is seen at 402.40.
Copper daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 301 tonnes.
Courtesy: Kedia Commodities
LME Copper rebounds ahead of U.S. payrolls data
* . LME copper gains on Asian physical trading
* . Fears of U.S. economic recovery still weighs
* . Coming up: U.S. non-farm payrolls, May; 1230 GMT
(Updates prices, adds quotes and details)
By Carrie Ho
SHANGHAI, June 3 (Reuters) - LME copper rose on Friday lifted by buoyant physical trading ahead of closely-watched U.S. payrolls data as Asian investors rushed to restock after prices dipped sharply overnight.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rallied 1.9 percent to $9,091.75 at a tonne by 0737 GMT, recouping its previous losses when it fell to a session trough of $8,905.75, its lowest since May 25.
The contract was on track to a more than 1 percent weekly loss, snapping two consecutive weekly gains.
The most-active August copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange SCFcv1 rose 1.1 percent to 68,420 yuan per tonne.
Physical traders said they took the opportunity to stock up after base metals prices fell sharply, even while speculators backed off due to nervousness towards the U.S. economy. [ID:nL3E7H30DM]
"We have been seeing good physical demand from China, India and Japan even before last night. And when base metal prices fell overnight, it triggered more buying on the physical side," said Pinaki Rath, managing director of Gold Matrix Resources.
Most LME metals have recovered to their previous day's open price but investors may look to upcoming key U.S. data later in the day for price direction from here.
"It was a very significant turnaround, and whether this can be sustained hinges on tonight's release of the non-farm payroll data out of the U.S," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services in Sydney.
Economists revised down their forecast on the May non-farm payrolls data, after a report on Wednesday showed a sharp slowdown in private job growth last month, following a slew of disappointing data this week. [ID:nN01187478] [ID:nN02246578]
Markets fell on Thursday after ratings agency Moody's warned it would consider cutting the United States top-notch credit rating if progress is not made by mid-July in talks to raise its debt limit. [ID:nN01214888]
The euro edged down against the dollar on Friday after touching a one-month high in early Asian trading hours on expectations of a bailout for debt-laden Greece, and the dollar steadied against a basket of currencies. [ID:nLDE7510VR]
Base metals prices at 0737 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move YTD pct chg
LME Cu 9091.75 171.75 +1.93 -5.29
SHFE CU FUT AUG1 68420 760 +1.12 -4.77
LME Alum 2640.00 24.00 +0.92 6.88
SHFE AL FUT AUG1 16940 100 +0.59 0.59
HG COPPER JUL1 412.35 4.20 +0.95 -7.12
LME Zinc 2257.00 37.00 +1.67 -8.03
SHFE ZN FUT AUG1 17475 255 +1.48 -10.27
LME Nickel 22760.00 210.00 +0.93 -8.04
LME Lead 2432.00 28.00 +1.16 -4.63
SHFE PB FUT 16890 10 +0.06 -7.96
LME Tin 26850.00 250.00 +0.94 -0.19
LME/Shanghai arb 500
Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month
Shanghai lead launched on March 24
(Editing by Ed Lane)
Source: http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3E7H304520110603
Thursday, 2 June 2011
Copper Falls to One-Week Low as Slowdown in Manufacturing May Curb Demand
Copper fell to a one-week low on concern that the global economic recovery may be faltering as manufacturing slows from China to the U.S., the world’s largest metals buyers.
Manufacturing in the U.S. grew at the slowest pace in more than a year last month, and more Americans than forecast filed applications forunemployment benefits last week. China said industrial production was the weakest since August. Copper prices have dropped 12 percent from a record in February.
“The market is starting to take more seriously the prospect of a meaningful slowdown in growth in the western world, and potentially in China,” said Daniel Brebner, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in London.
Copper futures for July delivery fell 2.2 cents, or 0.5 percent, to close at $4.0845 a pound at 1:17 p.m. on the Comex in New York, after touching $4.0325, the lowest since May 25. The metal reached an all-time high of $4.6575 on Feb. 15.
“The weak data has really started to weigh on the market,” said Rich Ilczyszyn, a senior strategist at Lind- Waldock, a broker in Chicago. “We are going to see a little bit of a struggle.”
Copper may fall to $3.85 by the end of this month, Ilczyszyn said.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months fell $182, or 2 percent, to $8,920 a metric ton ($4.05 a pound).
Aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead and tin also fell in London.
Copper, Aluminum Drop as Weaker Data Drive Speculation Recovery May Falter
Copper, nickel and aluminum declined in London for a second straight day on mounting concern that the global economic recovery may be faltering as manufacturing slows from China to the U.S.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell as much as 0.9 percent to $9,016 a metric ton, the lowest level in a week, and was at $9,027 at 1:36 p.m. in Singapore. Zinc and lead also fell, joining equities and other commodities including oil, as the outlook for global growth dimmed.
Output in the U.S. was the weakest in a more than a year, according to a report yesterday, while industrial production cooled in India and the U.K. In China, one report yesterday showed manufacturing grew at the slowest pace in nine months, while another indicated the slowest growth in 10 months.
“Global economic growth appears to be moderating and this is weighing on market sentiment,” Zhu Yan, an analyst at Xiangyu Futures Co., said from Shanghai. China and the U.S. are the world’s two biggest users of copper.
July-delivery copper on the Comex in New York lost as much as 0.7 percent to $4.079 per pound, dropping for a third day. Copper for August delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 1.5 percent to 67,300 yuan ($10,381) a ton.
Some economists trimmed forecasts for May payrolls that will be reported in two days after a private report yesterday showed U.S. companies last month added jobs at the slowest pace since September. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) reduced its estimate to a gain of 100,000 from 150,000, while Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. cut its target to 160,000 from 225,000.
‘Much More Anxious’
“If you knock out employment gains, you really take back this idea that we’ve entered a sustainable recovery,” James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “If we’re no longer in a sustainable recovery, then investors get much more anxious.”
The weaker-than-expected data have triggered speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may decide to extend economic stimulus beyond the expiration in June of its current program of so-called quantitative easing.
Aluminum in London lost as much as 1.4 percent to $2,630 a ton and nickel dropped as much as 1.5 percent to $22,900 a ton. Zinc dropped 0.8 percent to $2,239 a ton, lead lost 1.3 percent to $2,469 a ton and tin declined 1.1 percent to $27,300 a ton.
Copper and oil firm up, gold falls from 4-wk high
* CRB sees biggest monthly loss in a year
* Euronext wheat futures top performer in May
* U.S. silver weakest commodity this month
By Marcy Nicholson
NEW YORK, May 31 (Reuters) - Copper, oil and soft commodities rose on Tuesday, with the red metal tapping a four-week peak on growing hopes for a second aid package for Greece and as the U.S. dollar dropped, prompting investors to seek riskier assets.
Oil jumped over $2 a barrel after closure of a pipeline carrying crude from Canada to the United States, but oil still closed May with the biggest monthly decline in a year.
Gold ended lower in a reversal after it hit the highest level in four weeks, and U.S. grains also fell.
The 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index closed the day up 1 percent at 350.06. But the global benchmark for commodities ended May with a monthly decline of 5.5 percent, its weakest month in a year and its first monthly loss after eight straight months of gains.
Euronext wheat futures were the top commodity performers in May with monthly gains of 10.5 percent, Liffe white sugar was in second place with monthly gains at 9.3 percent. U.S. silver was the month's biggest loser, falling 21.2 percent in May with spot silver following closely behind at a monthly loss of 19.7 percent.
New York's benchmark front-month crude oil futures rose $2.11 to close at $102.70 barrel, but finished May down 9.9 percent. London's Brent crude rose $1.79 on the day to $116.46 a barrel after hitting an earlier $117.16 intraday peak.
"It's a combination of investors looking for return wherever they can get it to beat inflation and it's a reaction to the U.S. dollar," said Sean McGillivray, vice president and head of asset allocation for Great Pacific Wealth Management in Oregon, said about the commodities that moved higher.
"The risk premium is back. Look at the reversion in the U.S. dollar. That tells me that everybody has shaken off any kind of worry."
The euro hit a three-week high against the U.S. dollar on a belief that Greece may avoid a debt restructuring, attracting investors holding other currencies to dollar-traded commodities.
"You still have really strong fundamentals in crude oil, in agriculture, in metal markets, so people are just putting their money back to work," McGillivray said.
Spot gold pulled back to $1,533.80 an ounce, down from $1,537.95 late on Monday, after hitting the highest since May 4 at $1,540.50.
Copper rose to a four-week high in the commodity-wide rally with the London Metal Exchange benchmark copper closing up $21 at $9,220 a tonne, after hitting its highest since May 4 at $9,278.50 per tonne. The July COMEX copper contract in New York backed away from its own four-week high and closed down 0.85 cent at $4.1775 per lb.
In grain markets, U.S. wheat fell following Russia's weekend announcement that it would lift its near year-long export ban. The futures contract closed down 4.6 percent to close at $7.82-1/4 a bushel. Corn and soybeans followed wheat lower.
U.S. cotton surged to a four-week high as a historic drought continued in Texas while sugar, coffee and cocoa futures marched higher on a lift from the weaker dollar. Prices at 3:59 p.m. EDT (1959 GMT) (Additional reporting by Chris Kelly; Editing by David Gregorio)
Copper dips on gloomy US economic outlook
Copper slipped today, extending losses from the previous session, after US jobs and manufacturing data came in below expectations and raised worries about the health of the global economy.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was at $9,063.75 a tonne by 0922 GMT, from $9,102 a tonne at the close on Wednesday, but trading volumes were lower than usual due to a religious holiday closing offices in most European countries. Earlier, the metal used in power and construction hit a weekly low of $9,016.
“I think a read through weaker (manufacturing data), particularly in the US, is being the main driver at the moment,” said Daniel Major, an analyst at RBS.
“The market is just very apprehensive and it’s waiting for payrolls data on Friday to confirm what has been a softer trend in macro data.”
US companies hired far fewer workers than expected in May and output in the manufacturing sector slowed to its lowest level since 2009, adding to concerns that the U.S. recovery is running out of steam.
The figures do not bode well for Friday’s US non-farm payrolls data, analysts said.
“It’s healthy for the market to consolidate and take stock,” a trader said. “There has been a little bit of physical interest in Asia but I suspect we won’t see any real movement until such a time as the SHFE-LME window opens.” Slower-than-expected manufacturing expansion in top metals consumer China and in the Euro zone was also weighing on sentiment.
“The PMI data for June suggested that the pace of manufacturing is slowing faster than expected in the Western World, although holding up better than anticipated in China if usual seasonality holds,” Macquarie said in a note.
LOWER IMPORTS
Inventories of copper on LME rose 2,650 tonnes to 473,500 tonnes, the highest in a year.
The noticeable increase in LME copper stocks seen since December last year raised some concerns about waning imports from top consumer China. But this increase was partly balanced, by a recent reduction registered in inventories in Shanghai and off-warrant stocks, analysts pointed out.
Higher LME stocks do not show a decline in global underlining demand but rather lower imports into China, which is tapping into its inventories after having stockpiled material last year, Major said.
Given the seasonal weakness in copper consumption, a strong rebound in Chinese imports is unlikely in the next two months but imports should increase at the end of the third quarter and in the fourth quarter, he added.
Aluminium was at $2,655 from a last bid at $2,667 on Wednesday and zinc, used in galvanizing steel, was at $2,252 from $2,257. Battery material lead was at $2,478.75 from $2,500 and tin was at $27,200 from $27,595 Wednesday’s close.
Source: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/copper-dipsgloomy-us-economic-outlook/437633/
Monday, 30 May 2011
Copper in New York Declines for First Day in Five on U.S. Economy Slowdown
Copper in New York fell for the first time in five days before reports this week that may show the economy is slowing in the U.S., the world’s second-largest consumer of the metal after China.
July-delivery copper on the Comex in New York dropped as much as 1.2 percent to $4.135 a pound and traded at $4.1545 at 5:33 p.m. Singapore time. Copper for August delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also declined for the first day in five, falling as much as 1 percent to 68,010 yuan ($10,490) a ton. The London Metal Exchange and U.S. markets are closed today for holidays.
“Global economic data haven’t been very supportive of higher prices,” Huang Zhulin, an analyst at Goldstate Futures Co., said from Shanghai. “The rally last week was driven by expectations that demand will continue to pick up in China.”
U.S. payrolls are expected to rise by 185,000 workers in May, following a 244,000 increase in April, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey before Labor Department figures to be released on June 3. Another report may show factory orders grew at the slowest pace in seven months.
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.4 percent last month as food and fuel prices increased, the Commerce Department said May 27. The gain compared with a 0.5 percent median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Copper also declined as the dollar rose for the first time in three days against the euro on concern European governments will struggle to resolve the sovereign-debt crisis. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he’ll press ahead with new austerity measures even as he failed to win backing from opposition parties.
Weekly Gain
Copper in London gained for a second week last week, adding 1.4 percent, on signs of stronger demand in China. Copper premiums reached a seven-month high and stockpiles tracked by the exchange slid to a 21-month low last week. The metal is still 1.3 percent lower this month, set for a third monthly drop, on concern that global growth is slowing.
“Chinese physical demand is definitely improving, judging from the decline in exchange inventories and the increase in premiums,” said Huang. “However, we remain cautious as the risk of a global economic slowdown still exists.”
Global demand for refined copper may grow 8.4 percent from 2010 to 2012 compared with growth of 16.4 percent from 2005 to 2010, Mark Loveitt, secretary-general of the International Wrought Copper Council, said at a May 29 conference in Shanghai.
Demand from China’s power industry may grow 5 percent this year, while building and construction industry demand may expand 7 percent and consumption by the transport industry may grow 8 percent to 10 percent, Loveitt said.
BASE METALS: Shanghai Metals Mostly Up; Weak Physical Buying Caps Copper
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--Base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mostly higher Monday, with copper rising for a fourth consecutive session in response to gains in global metal markets Friday.
Benchmark SHFE August copper settled 0.3% higher at CNY68,320 a metric ton, after hitting a more-than-three-week high of CNY68,730/ton at the opening.
The red metal benefited from across-the-board gains in base metals Friday on the back of pre-holiday book-squaring and the dollar's weakness against the euro.
"Without direction from the London Metal Exchange in Asian hours today [Monday], Chinese investors just tracked the performance before the weekend in overseas markets," said Minmetals Futures analyst Zhuo Guiqiu.
The dollar gained against the euro in subdued Asian trade Monday, but traders expected the greenback to weaken again this week amid signs of slower U.S. growth.
The euro was recently at $1.4281, down from $1.4320 in New York Friday.
However, the four-session rise in copper prices hurt physical buying and capped gains in futures contracts, traders said.
"Sales were pretty light today as end-users had stored some of the metal when prices were lower last week," said a physical trader in Shanghai.
Spot copper was trading at a premium of CNY450/ton against front-month SHFE contract, compared with a premium of CNY600/ton early last week, reflecting subdued buying interest.
Still, analysts said copper prices are going to be strongly underpinned in the medium- and long-term by demand from China, given its strategic interest in the red metal and the rapid growth of its economy.
Demand for copper in China's power industry is expected to rise 5% this year, while transport-industry use may rise 8%-10%, International Wrought Copper Council Secretary General Mark Loveitt said during an industry forum Sunday.
Copper traded at the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Trading Market, a major spot metals market in Shanghai, was quoted at CNY69,300-CNY69,400/ton, up from CNY68,950-CNY69,050/ton Friday.
Three-month LME copper ended Friday's afternoon kerb $183 higher at $9,198/ton. The LME is closed Monday for a public holiday in the U.K. Trading will resume Tuesday.
SHFE zinc and lead inched down, while aluminum settled slightly higher.
Monday's settlement prices in yuan a ton and LME late kerb prices from Friday in dollars a ton:
SHFE LME
Copper Aug 68,320 Up 230 3Mo 9,198 Up 183
Aluminum Aug 16,755 Up 30 3Mo 2,624.5 Up 62.5
Zinc Aug 17,295 Dn 40 3Mo 2,273 Up 15
Lead Sep 17,170 Dn 20 3Mo 2,505 Up 15
Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110530-701473.html
India: Copper future will gain, buying recommended
AHMEDABAD (Commodity Online): MCX Copper June contract ended flat Saturday after rising Friday as a weaker dollar boosted prices, but pared gains as poor U.S. data underlined a patchy global economic outlook that suggested its advance may falter. Copper on LME hit $9,238, its highest since May 4, as the euro climbed to a session high against the dollar.
For today's session MCX Copper June contract is looking to take support at 412, a break below could see a test of 408.3 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 419.7, a move above could see prices testing 422.9.
Copper June futures trading range is 408.3-422.9.
Intraday traders can buy MCX Copper June contract near 410 with the stop loss of 406 and can wait for the targets of 414 and 418.
